Distinguished Vice Chancellor, Faculty Dean, esteemed professors, vibrant students of Great Ife, and honoured guests. It is a privilege to present this paper at this inaugural Distinguished Personality Lecture of the Faculty of Administration.

We are here today at Obafemi Awolowo University, a bedrock of intellectual rigor, to confront a paradox that has defined our national narrative for decades: why does Nigeria, a nation of such immense human and natural potential remain tethered to the brink of prosperity without ever quite crossing over?

The paper I present today, “From Potential to Prosperity: Export-Led Economy,” moves beyond the standard metrics of GDP to offer a sobering diagnosis of Nigeria’s economic trajectory from 1998 to 2023. Using the Harvard Atlas of Economic Complexity, we find that Nigeria’s story is one of structural stagnation. While global peers
like Vietnam have successfully transitioned from agriculture to high-tech manufacturing, Nigeria remains monolithic, with an export profile dangerously anchored to the volatile fluctuations of crude oil and gas.

Our current standing is a wake-up call:

• Stagnant Complexity: Nigeria ranks 142nd out of 145 countries on the Economic Complexity Index (ECI).
• Predictor of Growth: Because the ECI is a leading indicator of future wealth, the Harvard Growth Lab projects a sluggish annual growth rate of just 2.2% for Nigeria over the next decade, a figure that barely keeps pace with our population growth.
• The “Missing Middle”: We possess a high-tech oil sector and a low-productivity informal sector, but we lack the vibrant, labor-absorbing industrial base that serves as a bridge to higher complexity.

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